Sustainable Competitiveness

Day-by-day economic model of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Three scenarios, four channels, 87 countries. Brent crude, cumulative GDP loss, inflation and oil price trajectories from Day 0 to Day 180. Interactive calculator lets you set the scenario and conflict duration.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded 15.8M bpd across GCC states and Iraq. Three scenarios model the transmission to global GDP — from −$590B to −$3.5T (3.15% of world GDP) — across oil, LNG, fertilizer and shipping channels. Gulf states and Iraq are net losers in all of them.

How a country's energy mix determines its vulnerability to the Gulf crisis. Renewable electricity buffers 6–29% of total energy exposure across 34 countries. Uruguay's 98% RE grid saves 0.15pp on the electricity channel; China's LNG trap makes it more exposed than 20 years ago. Global GDP at risk: −3.15% in the prolonged scenario.

Comprehensive framework for evaluating country-level ESG performance across 192 nations. Finland tops the rankings while China continues to outperform the US.

Approximately $394 billion in committed LNG capital faces stranded asset risk as renewable energy at $30-40/MWh defeats LNG-fired power at $80-120/MWh. Analysis reveals 278 MTPA structural surplus by 2030.

Natural capital rankings analyzing 192 countries based on water availability, biodiversity, and ecosystem health. Tropical nations and low-density countries score highest.